The setup of Nine is similar to last seasons Gabreille. That would make the key tool for forcasating the WV sat. This morning it seems that nine is pulling itself together better than Gabby did, and the influence of the subsidence is lessening. The thinking on the track is that after the frontal trough passes through today the Atlantic High axis will steer this more north than east..this suggests that low level steering will be the dominant factor in the track,and that is highly unpredictable...the upper air visible on the WV also suggests a pulling north of the current environment. So the NHC future track could be reliable. Last Seasons Gabreille was pushed quickly ene by the upper environment and I do not see the same thing happenning today so far to Nine.
Finally the early morning Sat pics. suggest it is pulling energy up from the southeast and is wrapping it around to the west...more moisture there this am than yesterday...this suggests intensification is ongoing...
Movement now...very slow drift to NE toward the Cedar Key area. EDS