visibles have td 9 drifting northwest(?). so those model runs taking the depression (or maybe its named now like it should be) up to the central gulf coast. moving against the grain instead of perpendicular to it.. so shear will never leave it alone. should get steadily lighter as it gets closer to the coast, though. tropical storm, pascagoula MS very late saturday is my best guess. most of the weather will probably hit the florida panhandle.
elsewhere.. invest 99L now. convection is mostly ahead of the broad surface low, system is still opting for the southern path. should start moving wnw into the upper SW flow ahead, probably get to the islands as as weak sheared system. middle of next week could be in a very threatening position in the western carib or maybe SW atlantic.
system at 22/52.. getting by the rough part of the TUTT with what is either a just barely closed low or vigorous surface trough. either going to turn north into the trough in the western atlantic or possibly brickwall until the ridge rebuilds. more likely it will turn.
former td7.. yes, still a swirl with one thunderstorm near 29/60. like the last three, think today will be its last day of existence. a more dominant low in the trough will probably swallow it. if not, i predict that it will slowly crawl north into the atlantic for the rest of the month.
maybe H and I storms before the weekend is out. and a likely landfall somewhere between cape san blas and grand isle... of a weak system. hey, why not, another tropical storm.
HF 1431z12september