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Good Observation. There was a vort heading off to the NNW, but it spun off and "washed" into the western side of the circulation. I believe it's still in it's formative stages but I believe the NRL location is still valid more to the SE at 26.8N/86.2W. But it's shifting around so that too could change. It could sit in the GOM awhile longer than the NHC is suggesting. The wave east of the islands is getting better organized , but it is also dealing with increased shear, which may inhibit it from developing as the SHIPS suggests, at least until the trough pulls out. Again the Numericals take it SSE of Puerto Rico in 72 hours (haven't looked at the shear maps) as an 88 knot hurricane. Don't think it will be that strong, but if the environment gets more favorable as the trough lifts out, it could be a hurricane by then. After that things get interesting. But let's watch the GOM. If TD#9 stays out there long enuf, she could get pushed ENE by the trough early next week. Otherwise heads NNE. Cheers!! |