yeah i changed my mind. before recon found a tight 1001mb center last night i thought it was a weak system that was going to follow the flow to the east. now it's doing a cyclonic loop turning sw in the latest pics. so ive gone sarasota to pascagoula.. the nhc track is right up the middle and probably best. hey man, whoever ya be, workin things out. models have been about as finicky as me on this, and thats pretty much what i have to go by. panhandle landfall would be fun here, helene back in 2000 got us out of school.. cause even though the center came in near navarre the heavy weather was here.
well, anyway... looks like an upper low is camping right on top of the storm.. enhancing outflow to the southeast but keeping the steering confused and the subsidence injection on.. but further north things improve. by the last 12hrs or so this thing is off the coast.. say late tomorrow if the nhc timetable is right (too fast if anything) this thing could be deepening some. how fast, nobody knows. 50mph is safe but maybe a tad conservative.
99L... still kind of oblong. upper shear is ahead, but also diffluent and enhancing convection. this thing needs convection, so im betting it would favor organization. still a pretty broad, oblate circular surface turning.
NW of there.. both of the little ones. think an invest at least out of these.. bastardi says a tropical storm. have some doubts, but i can see the possibility.
W gulf (?) have been ignoring, but might be something spooky in the BOC with all the goings on.
HF 1742z12september