i dont think a neat circular loop either.. something more like a lowercase greek sigma. center should slow and begin to stack on the southerly leg of its loop.. here's where the problems could begin. pressure is down around 1002 and flight level winds are back up.. probably a hanna at 5pm. as it slows coming out of its loop.. steering weakens again before the trough back to the west comes onto the scene.. probably going to deepen much faster than i first anticipated, due to it tracking with the weakening upper level winds as it comes back around. stronger i think, probably a hurricane at landfall. florida panhandle either late saturday or early sunday.
99L about the same in terms of organization.. might note that westerly shear at low latitudes ahead is very weak, much more so than it appears on satelite. so probably just helper shear, with the faster jet further north. so maybe not a struggling tropical storm but a growing one. do think the TUTT will rough it up once in the caribbean, at least a little.
td7 remnant merging in, but i can still see it. i will rejoice when it goes away. it will rain lollipops and donuts.
sharp wave/trough at 22/55.. moving wnw, trough to the north may pull out faster than it can recurve this.. so watch this one.. if the trough doesnt get it, east coast will.
hanna isidore.. josephine..? i wonder..
HF 1955z12september