think maybe its back online, but goes 8 was out for a while this morning, giving garbage images. not too hard to discern that the west/weak option is the viable one with hanna. instead of turning NE into a more favorable environment the storm decided to suck up more subsidence back west.. so what we have is the new version of the same old thing: for the life of this system it has insisted on shooting itself in the foot. funny that 2nd guess at pascagoula, which was based solely on the first leg of that little westward semicircle jog hanna took yesterday morning.. may actually end up working.
so, deep convection removed, center in the subsidence, weaker west option with hanna. basically another bertha for all of you on the central gulf coast.
99L... its moving fast. for all the better organization seen with it, it still has this basic problem: forward speed. hadnt really considered this until i thought about every other fast moving weak system near the caribbean.. they all tend to remain poorly organized until they slow down. maybe it has slowed just a tad since yesterday.. but not going to develop very fast unless it does some more.
up the road, probably will have developed into something.. a struggling system moving westward across the caribbean might in the long run be worse for us. a quick developer would want to take the first trough elevator out into fish spinner country it could find. something over in the western carib this time of year though.. heh.
west gulf: bastardi still eyeballing it so maybe that nagging suspicion is true. can see some disorganized convection down there right now, nothing too ominous looking.. but after hanna gets out of the way NE this area could try to spawn something.
other items: td7 remnants are now a pulse ahead of the big longwave off the east coast.. good riddance.
system near 25/55 right under the upper trough, not appearing very well organized, but still plenty of convection to go. the whole upper pattern here is transitioning, so hard to say exactly what happens with wave energy injected underneath. all in all not as organized as yesterday.
another fairly large wave came off africa the other day with no fanfare. no signature outside the itcz though.. but the enhanced convection down there is fairly prodigious. sideways chance, but something to monitor down the road (globals are noticing it even if theres not much on satelite).
a'ite, bout time for the next advisory..
HF 1440z13september