(Registered User)
Fri May 24 2002 04:11 PM
Re: Action in the Tropics

Well action early how nice. I agree with a new center at 84.5 17.5. Visible satelite shows a defined circulation but I am not sure its at the surface. Wind shear is definitly there with winds of 30-40 knots recorded in the area so until this weakens there will be no development. Now models are picking up something up in the NW Carribean but I see most of the models rushing the development and moving it too fast. So since the models are all picking up this feature it does concern me but I have to go with more of a northward direction towards the Florida Keys. I do not think this weekend is the problem but maybe Tuesday or Wednesday. I am still not sure if this will develope into anything more than a TD but at least it may increase rain over south Florida early next week. I am unable to get much forcasts on upper air in 3-5 days so right now its just a guess that winds will weaken in the upper levels late in the weekend to allow this system to develope slowly. Nothing to really worry about just monitor over the holiday weekend.

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