Apparently a broad low pressure center exists SSW of Grand Cayman. TPC places it at 18N 82W with a pressure of 1009 MB, according to the latest tropical discussion. Ship/CMAN reports in the vicinity of the low confirm the weakness of the low. The lowest pressure I could find was 1010 MB at 17.4N 79.1W. Winds were ESE at 22 MPH. Grand Cayman reported winds of 13 MPH from the ENE and pressure of 1012. I couldn't find any reports farther south, so I don't know what westerly winds are out there. The low looked slightly more impressive yesterday, although most of yesterday's convection can be attributed to the trough and not the low.

Looking at satellite imagery this morning, a small cluster of convection has developed over the general vicinity of the low. However, southwest wind shear from the trough is preventing the development of a persistent, concentrated cluster of convection atop the low's center. Thus, immediate development will be precluded until the shear diminishes. As the cyclone off the NE US coast lifts out and the southern end of the trough breaks from the flow, shear will diminish somewhat over the next couple of days. High pressure over the southern Caribbean will build in slightly stronger and provide more conducive conditions aloft for development. Even so, it still appears like some southwest shear will continue. The low will have to survive for a while longer if it will have any chance for development. The low will also have to survive the influx of dry air from the west until more moisture can return.

As for motion, I would suspect NNE to NE. This would bring the system through the Bahamas and give Florida some rain and wind. With all this said, I don't think the system stands a very good chance for development. Just a little pre-season excitement to get us warmed up! We'll see.

Ronn