i get the feeling td 10's center is dead. think about it: weak 25kt center racing forward at 20kt hits a narrow strip of land.. splat. as for it skimming the venezuela coast.. forget that. believe it or not water temps at the immediate coast are below support threshold, due to localized upwelling. so the upper environment is nice.. but the low level system is wrecked.
some of you have already proposed that the center may reform north, out over the caribbean closer to the convection. best option for keeping the system active... dont see this thing doing much right along the venezuela coast.
i do think this thing will reorganize by the time it is in the western caribbean. as model runs have consistently adjusted west i'm tempted to say it will crash into central america, but upstream the globals have a very sharp amplification in the central u.s... that draws whatever is there northward, unless it is just pathetically disorganized. so.. somewhat possible that late next week a tropical system will be near cuba, and near florida for the weekend.
before anything happens though this system has to produce a low level center in a place where it can grow, not drag it into venezuela. when we get something viable to track, then there can be some real forecasting, as opposed to wishcasting and guesscasting.
hanna.. moving more eastward than northward. not expecting it to survive its crossing of the southeast, but going to put down plenty more rain on the coastal plain and piedmont.. where it is needed.
central atlantic wave.. turning up into a sharp upper trough. upstream feature from the ridging over the eastern caribbean. might still sputter and try to develop, but off the westward track for now.
nothing else looking like it wants to develop.
anon, ive been watching you. dont see that you have anything but snide critical remarks, so perhaps you should keep your wit to yourself.. no one else is impressed by it. if you care to really join the board and communicate useful ideas, show that you have some forecasting balls.. fine.. but otherwise take a hike. useful criticism is structured, assertive, and credible... not cowardly and cheap.
HF 0505z15september