Fri May 24 2002 05:37 PM
Re: Action in the Tropics

The Caribbean low is still looking pathetic on satellite imagery and I don't think it is going to survive. Its slight westward movement has moved it even closer to hostile conditions and less of a chance of ever having more favorable upper level conditions for development. Abundant dry air is now consuming it.

Southwest wind shear will continue for at least another 72 hours as the trough remains fairly potent and an active subtropical jet continues across the Gulf of Mexico. If any development occurs in the Caribbean, I'm inclined to think it will be another separately formed low along the tail end of the surface front over Cuba...a hybrid system. This is what the models are forecasting. This system will accelerate in the southwest flow and be kicked out by a shortwave exiting the southeast U.S. coast early next week. In this case, Florida would experience an increase in wind, but not rain since the state would be on the dry side with subsiding air.

The hybrid scenario appears the most likely, with Florida getting only an increase in wind. Conditions are simply too hostile for the current low to develop.


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