SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND
CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS A
SUCCESS FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INSISTING ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE WEST AND THERE MAY BE SOME
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL AMPLIFIES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BECAUSE THE
DEPRESION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST
MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/04. A
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF MEXICO. AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE MAY FORCE THE
CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 11.6N 101.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 25/0600Z 11.8N 102.2W 35 KTS
24HR VT 25/1800Z 12.0N 103.0W 40 KTS
36HR VT 26/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 26/1800Z 13.0N 105.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 27/1800Z 13.5N 106.5W 65 KTS