recon will be telling us in the next couple of hours if the center is in or to the south of that burst off the venezuela coast.. i'm tempted to believe it is. a'ite.. if the center isnt under the convection we are looking at a weak, westward moving, probably not closed system. if it is under.. the intensification process is now under way. shouldnt go quickly until the storm moves away from the south american coast.. but after it reaches the 72nd meridian or so.. should become a steady intensifier. mary as for shear.. possible, but the upper trough in the w carib is retrograding and not really generating a whole lot.
models: a couple of the globals still bullish on turning it up near eastern cuba, but the consensus has shifted to west of jamaica now. on the other hand gfdl is all the way over across the yucatan now. years past we've watched one major caribbean hurricane after another just keep going west and never turn up and hit us.. so that possibility does resonate.. but i'm going against it this time. think that by friday the storm will be clearing western cuba or the yucatan channel and entering the gulf.. turning northward and slowing down.
intensity.. the big scary question. globals not deepening the storm much, statistical models are. gfdl does its usual major hurricane. think the nhc intensity is slightly conservative after 36hrs. i'm going to call for major hurricane.. something i dont usually do unless a system is well on its way there. partially gut feeling, partially because so many other people have.. that if i'm wrong i'm just another bandwagon wreck victim. but i do see a very mean hurricane out of this. primary concerns southern and western florida (i know, friday to sunday is a long way off).
elsewhere in the tropics.. nothing is closer than probably 48hrs from development. new african wave is in a good environment, but not quite ready. wave at 35w is shorn. some disturbed weather southeast and east of bermuda that isnt very organized. hanna tracking NE towards the atlanta area.. all the weather is south and east of there. looking less tropical today. western gulf still has me suspicious, but nothing there right now.
earlier post about hurricane parties: need a hurricane for that. hanna was just a breeze and many hours of light to moderate rain. will try again with isidore next weekend.
HF 1624z15september
HF 1623z