well I still dont have a perdiction on this system. I held off last 2 days cause I couldnt find reliability in the models on wanting to develop this thing as much as they did. Now they hardly want to develop this at all, maybe a weak TS again in the gulf by Thurs or Friday. Again I still dont know and wont know until I can get now 2 consistant model runs in from AVN. I discount the GFDL. 1 run it wants a cat 3 then the next a weak TS. Anyways there is a open wave with a slight midlevel circulation people see. If this storm will develop then it will over the next day or 2. It should slow and turn NW. How strong I wont know till Monday afternoon. Right now not only is there no west wind, there is no north wind at all. This is such a open wave that the convection north of Hispianola looks better. Even though there is a Conv burst in the central carribean, there is not a close chance for a circulation in the next 6-12 hours. Now a ship reporting SE winds near 18K near 13 N and 74W and there should be a NNE to NNW wind. The system is open. Again I will post more later on Monday.
scottsvb HURRICANEUPDATECENTER