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hey, that nasa zoom satelite is great... looking at td 10 remnants close up and you can see the banding in the low level stratus on the southwest semicircle of the convection.. so.. its definitely got a low level center near 16/74.. and it is moving wnw.. and getting some ssw shear. all in all tracking a lot slower than before. based on just this, here's the thought: doesnt really intensify much today or tomorrow, just a tropical storm. passes parallel to and just south of jamaica. begins deepening rapidly wednesday south of grand cayman and turns up nw, crosses western cuba.. yeah, you get the pic. elsewhere.. system east of bermuda has a well defined turning in the low levels, convection sheared but continuous mostly to the north of its center. td candidate out near 33/50. between td10 remnants and this feature is another one.. related to the convection blowup along the TUTT yesterday. another weak low level turning is evident near 25/60, with convection sheared west. curious feature just off the north coast of the dominican republic, as well. hanna comes off today, convection in the extreme western gulf.. neither are high prospects. healthy stuff off africa, but theres a strong upper trough near 35-40w ready to get it. HF 1413z16september |