Well, I guess that makes three of us who see the LLCC on the west edge of convection. However, NHC just issued a stds that says no closed low at this time. Too much dry air off SA, in 24 hrs, it'll be a whole new picture.

Observations:

1. LLCC is outrunning the convection, but new convection is firing as noted on the east side of the LLCC.

2. There is some sw shear, it is weakening

3. When system gets a little closer to Jamaica and Caymans, it'll go big time.

4. Ultimate destination--well, with no LLCC (closed off) hard to say, I'd say close to SE FL coast recurving or just west of Florida, possibly as far west as central Gulf, then a recurve into N/NE Gulf coast.

TWT- Time Will Tell.

IHS,

Bill

outside chance---Yucatan, then into Gulf, further west--or into N Gulf Coast.