http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIADSAAT.html

This not good for two reasons:
1. Starting tonight, Jamaca is going to feel tropical storm force winds. It simply doesn't matter if this thing has a closed circulation at this time.
2. Notice they aren't going back in until tomorrow morning. Not at all a good thing...this could well be a moderate tropical storm by then. Going to catch Jamaca by surprise and possibly give Cuba very little advanced warning.

This is a lousy decision by NHC...this "strong wave" is probably extremely close to depression strength. We need recon back in tonight, not tomorrow. The satellite signature continues to improve and that concerns me. Reminded of Erin in 1995 when NHC said it was a very vigourous tropical wave...it had winds of like 40-50 knots but no closed circulation. It developed one very quickly once the shear that was on it went away. Also, recon found the circulation on a nighttime mission. On the flip side, if the appearance continues NHC may just issue a nighttime mission or maybe even upgrade on satellite basis tonight. We'll have to see if the organization trend continues. If the decision for no recon holds tonight and no upgrade via satellite occurs recon will be very, very surprised tomorrow. They may not get another look until tomorrow...the day I think the rapid intensification phase will begin.