well, when i said i could see stratus inflow suggesting a low level center on the western edge, recon still hadnt checked that part of the storm, and they only gave one more obs before running home. very annoying. now the center is leading the convection, exposed.. under outflow clouds building back over it from the east.. but you can see it. go look at the nhc visible floater, they finally decided to retask it and stop staring at the fair skies over alabama. shows up on nasa satelite page as well (third or fourth link at the bottom of the nhc imagery page).
my ideas are less cut and dry at this point. the center is running ahead naked just a hair above 15n at 76w. moving due west as well. this is typical tropical system behavior. the visible llc is inside of an inflow envelope which is feeding back into the main convection to the west.. so basically it is supporting convection for fifty miles away but not for itself. no further organization until the center redevelops back east or starts generating a convective core.
night is falling and tracking the low level feature will be quite difficult. all i can look for is convection building west of the current mass.
basically there are three possiblities:
1)system finally builds a convective core, begins turning up and threatens
2)system keeps jumping ahead of the convection, shooting itself in the foot, never deepens, hits central america after days of goofing around
3)system commits suicide by running ahead too far
someone earlier mentioned that since this system is a threat to florida if it develops along expected lines, we can be sure that it wont (steve h?) i have to echo that sentiment.. year after year we watch what by historical inference should come pound florida, keep it on its usual strike pace.. recurve early or just keep charging westward to belize or the yucatan. all bets are off until this system gets its act together.
other note.. surprised no invest on the 33/51 system. its sort of in 'duh, im developing' mode.
HF 2157z16september