Current conditions show SW sheer inhibiting any rapid intensification of the carribean system. No LLC found by recon means no watches for Jamaica but will be informed on TS winds that will affect the island late tonight thru Thurs. Currently there is a weak LLC near 15.8N and 75.8W moving just north of west at 280' at 18 mph. Due to the moderate sheer, rapid speed, and weak low pressure in the system it can not intensify quickly. Alot of heavy showers are off to the east and northeast of the center. This will continue to spread over the Haiti area and Jamaica tonight.
For Track and intensity I will say there is a weak LLC and it will begin to slow just a bit and move to the NW later tonight into Tues. The system should be namedlater when the NEXT recon goes in or when ship and buoy reports come out of the system with any kind of W wind. Tuesday the sheer will dominish some but will still be there. I dont expect alot of strengthning to a hurricane until later Weds or that night if at all. First we want to close this thing. Track will take this SW of Jamaica by later tuesday and very near the Grand Cayman island early weds. With a upper anticyclone to the NE of the system and lowering heights in the central g-o-m a more turn to the NNW will take shape later Weds night with land fall near 81W early on Thurs and as a posible hurricane then. After about 6-8 hours of crossing the small area of Cuba it should re enter the Fla straits late Thurs or night. The forcast then is for more strengthning and a N motion Thurs night and a slow NNE or NE turn to take shape. Friday - Friday night should be a landfall. The areas of concern are wide spread this far out. Areas from N of Tampa all the way around the state to Miami's SE area could be in direct line. The turn to the NNE or NE is what it all comes down to. Cant make the exact point yet. As for intensity, right now going just under the GFDL with a Cat 2-3. Some sheer might again be felt of the system on Friday ahead of the strong trough and cold front to its NW. So expect LLC to form overnight, TS on Tuesday to move close to G Cayman later on weds to cross w central Cuba very late Weds night or most likely Thurs as strong TS or weak hurricane, move N and threaten Key west early Friday and the SW florida area but very wide area indeed later that day. Tampa-Miami. Nogaps is best model for this and GFS. Avn is next. Ill post more later in detail on Tues if and when this devolps. scottsvb