My thinking is that the Bahamas may feel very little effect from this system. I'm still thinking it should keep moving towards the wnw at 10-15 mph for at least the next 36h.

Analog storms: I've picked out some storms that seem to be at least somewhat similar to this one. Although some formed in different places, I believe with one of the storms the outcome may be the same as with this one.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricaen/atlantic/1944/11/track.gif
This track looks like the most similar to this storm at this time. This storm was never a quick mover and effected western Cuba as a hurricane but then weakened as it went over. When it emerged over water, it was moving slowly but it re-intensified into a category 3 hurricane. Looks quite similar to this one.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1953/FLORENCE/track.gif
This one formed in a similar place to the 1944 storm but tracked further west. This has a much lower chance of being similar to our current storm than the 1944 one does. The trough that should effect this system looks to be very sharp. Shouldn't allow this one to get up to the Florida Panhandle.

Of course, there could be some variations in intensity. Another thing I wanted to point out: It seems whenever we have a tropical wave producing tropical storm forced winds but with no closed circulation we eventually see development. It also seems that these storms don't tend to stop developing when they hit land. With Erin in 1995, it was a rainmaker for the Florida Peninsula but when it hit the Florida Panhandle wind damage was far greater than with Erin's first hit. Wil this storm be the same way? Rainfall a main threat in Cuba with wind being the main threat in Florida. Time will tell.

Also, in years similar to this one where activity is pushed closer to the US and more numerous in the GOMEX it seems Florida always get a cat.2 or cat.3 from the south. Just a trend I noticed from some years.

Kevin