been obvious all afternoon that an llc ran out ahead of the main convective mass. that thing is toast, running out there alone. if there is a secondary center forming in the convection.. thats the real deal. if it forms in the mid levels, also dont have to worry about it running away with the low level westerly flow.. you get a deeper system.
anyway no way to tell for sure, but with that kind of very deep convection firing and re-firing south of haiti youve got to think something cyclonic is trying to get going.
we'll know for sure if it starts getting a less amorphous signature and T numbers start going up. unless the sun rises first.
by the way, the fact that the convection hasnt moved has allowed it to distance itself from the upper trough ahead somewhat.. it IS in ideal development shape now. this is obvious by the outflow cirrus shield extending away from the convective mass in all direction.
got EVERYTHING it needs for sure, except an llc.
by the way for future track.. synoptic pattern favors it to track wnw originally, then turning nw and north with time. whether it turns up in the bahamas or in the yucatan channel will make all the difference.
if this thing develops, it will not be a sissy storm, by the way. put a low level center with convective feedback in that environment for two or three days and youve got a major hurricane.
better hope it goes goofy and cant organize.. if it does somebody gets whacked.
HF 0104z17september