there it is.. i had no idea this would be the process, but it's happening. that center that ran out ahead the other day.. convection has built forward and is now supporting it.. perhaps there is another closer to the convection and the two are hooking back into each other. it was turning sw last night, and the low level flow ahead of the system was slowing.. a sign that the something was developing at the surface.. this was evident in the first llc slowing down and hooking back. now probably the little llcs are fujiwhara-ing together and the system is gelling on either one or on a common point. either way, system developing south or southeast of jamaica, finally going to start organizing.. and will be moving up into the NW caribbean and probably gulf or florida straits late this week or weekend.
HF 1128z17september