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Well TD# 10 developes a bit more south than I thought last night. This does change things a bit but in what direction its unsure. The path forcasted should be a bit west of the previous one so western Cuba or eastern Yucatan is a possibility. Latest satellite pictures do show a LLCC with developing thundestorms on its east and north side. By 5pm I do expect T.S. Isidore. So where next? Read this and it will help: BOTH THE AVN AND CANADIAN MODELS HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT OF A CENTER ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNDERNEATH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE NOGAPS AND GFDL WANT TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...RESPECTIVELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SOFTER NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN AN ATTEMPT TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500 MB AVN AND UKMET LARGE SCALE FORECAST FIELDS. PERHAPS COINCIDENTALLY...THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BAM AND LBAR MODELS. So I believe the forcast track will change over the next 24 hours to the east and how far will have towait. As for TD#10 moving west I don't think it is its moving w-nw but very slow and thats another problem so read this: BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEW...THE INITIAL MOTION IS VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/8...PERHAPS LESS. So we will wait and see at 5pm when new more reliable information is out until we get down to exact track. |