Hey Folks, I believe the NHC intensity forecast is off. That is, I believe (if the shear continues to lessen) this thing is ready to explode. Latest sat images show the area of convection to it's east getting wrapped into the circulation and boundary layers setting up in a big circle. It is also going to be over water further west than was anticipated earlier with no land interaction for 72 hours at least. I see a Major cane outta this. Alright enuf hyping, but this really needs to be taken seriously since the forecast track is for western Cuba at 72 hours, and someone after that. I see nothing ahead of this (albeit some light shear for 24 hours) for the next 3-4 days to inhibit development until the trough approaches. Now is the time to get prepared. Cheers!! Steve H.