There is a lot less dry air ahead as well. More moisture to feed more storms to help lower the pressure. The convection needs to build consitantly. By that I mean steady buildning, not just burst here and there, in order for the pressures to drop. The slowing down should help keep it away from the shear ahead and allow for more of that convection to build on the west side. As for where. I am sooo bad at guesstimating that. I try and look at projected path, and then se what lies ahead on the wetaher maps past the projection dates.

This has me thinking that even with its more west biased projection currently, if that holds true, we can still see a FL landfall. The trough should turn it and stir it more n the nnne/ne. Dependng on how sharp and fast the trough pulls her/it will have an impact on the strength. But being a more westward storm there will be less impact form Cuba (what little there would have been from W Cuba which has lower elevations).

so i say if it gets picked up and little shear from the trough, he have landfall at West Coast->state->E Coastanywhere from (Brevard up through St Johns) on sat- sun as a cat 2. if the trough speeds it up like mad(similar to mitch) cat 1 same local on west coast ---> maybe more north ( just Brevard / Voulsuia) on E coast sat night.

wow my first 5-7 day outlook.(I reserve my right to change it 3 hours before landfall)

In reference to a few season ago on here and some commentary If TWC send Jim Cantorie(sp?) to your area, it will hit there!

That guy is always in the worst of it.