General Conditions of TD is fairly weak. We have recon giving back reports of a still weak 1009mb pressure. No winds right now are as strong as yesterday. Does that mean the system is weaker? Infact NO of course not. Yesterday the system was crusing along near 20K and with the T-storms on its NE side of 20-30mph it relivates to a tropical storm force winds. But overall the structure is alittle better due to the slowing down of the system as it loses the strong driving ridge to its N. Now the TWC mets been talkiing about the T-Storms creating there own enviroment decreasing the sheer. Where did they learn that from? I cant believe they are tell you guys that. Only the most strongest Hurricanes with pressures under 925mb or so will create a strong enough upper flow, and there still is sheer though not as strong in TD10 right now. The only reason there is not as much is due to the TS losing the speed of the ridge while the upper low to its NW continues to the W.
Forcast remains the same. With a weaker system a west movement will happen with the low level flow. When the system gets better organized with pressures around 1005mb or so it will get pulled by the mid level flow which is out of the ESE causing a WNW movement. Currently the system is getting better though Im not sure if it will be upgraded to a TS by 5pm. Waiting on another recon. My forcast is still on track as post sw of Jamaica later today and tonight to near G cayman island on weds. My cross over was near 81 W and will be adjusted slightly W. I dont expect much of a W track into the Yucitan though it might get close if the system doesnt intensify early on it the forcast period. Finally be off the Sw coast of Florida on early Friday as a strong cat 1 or 2. We are all up in the air on intensity. Track is pretty well on, but we have time to see what happens to U.S landfall over the next 48-72 hours to pinpoint. scottsvb HURRICANEUPDATECENTER