im not ballsy enough to say who gets this one just yet. will be ready to when its up near the western end of cuba late this week. going to be a big ticket item for somebody.
basically the situation is this: missed the first shortwave that models originally had turning it up east of florida. thats old garbage now. consensus track is western cuba, where i'd sort of had my heart set.. but it isnt there yet. bigger amplification sets up in the middle of the country by late in the week, dragging a front down to the western gulf by the weekend. this is the one that i *THINK* will draw it up somewhere along the eastern gulf coast.. fort walton to fort myers.. somewhere in there, over the weekend or maybe early next week it takes its time. if, however, it misses this trough too.. doesnt get far enough north to be drawn up.. it wobbles westward again and makes a run for the middle gulf coast early/middle of next week.
this will probably be a mature hurricane when it comes ashore. potentially going to get very bad late this week/weekend. not trying to scare monger, just calling it how i see it.
btw, i read the nhc outlook earlier troy, about the central atlantic invest.. sort of poking fun at their cautious approach, thats a 40-50mph tropical storm if i've ever seen one.
HF 1738z17september