yeah well i keep getting ahead of myself. in some ways not much has changed from yesterday. the low level center is not under that western bulge of convection like i first guessed.. it is west of that. not moving quickly, but magically the convection is sitting in place and firing fifty to two hundred miles east of the center again. so in spite of it having tons of deep convection and crazy inflow on the east side, on the west side there is but a small low not sharing in the wealth.
this could wreck the short term idea that this will become a hurricane tomorrow, at least.
synoptically this thing is screaming development, it continues to blow impressive convection but none at the surface center.
its kind of like having a million dollars in pennies and not being able to use a coke machine.
HF 1802z17september