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Several of the model runs are now leaving a piece of energy back in the SW Caribbean - possibly a different low pressure. Many of the others bring a low just south or east of Florida in the 72-120 hour period. The AVN from a few days ago picked up the convectoin just to the west of Florida today. My favoirte right now is the GFDL http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002052512-one01e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr |