Well, what I thought would happen yesterday has now happened. Td 10 is back. I just looked at an image and the storm is now starting to get that wrapped appearene, this despite the fact the LLC still isn't all that well defined. Probably a TS tonight, but maybe as early as 5.

The big question is, of course, will this effect Florida. The current NHC track looks to be right on target through 72. This thing should take a North turn after 72 hours, then intensifying rapidly. The trough comming down should be sharp, at least. This should turn the system NE towards the west coast of Florida. Given the super-warm GOMEX waters and favorable shear env. in the GOMEX, I'm tempted to think at least a category two coming towards Florida. Could be as high as a category 4. I don't mean to be a wishcaster or an alarmist, but the way I see things coming together now, it looks like Florida will more than likely be in some deep #!@$ by this weekend. Also, if it intensifies to a hurricane before 72 hours it could go more northerly sooner than we think now. Watch it carefully over the next few days. What also bothers me is that it will probably go through the Yucatan Channel...storms love to bomb over that area of water.

If this storm turns northward after 72 hours, and it likely will, my family and I will begin to take some basic precautions. My dad went through Donna when he was 8 and he said it was pure chaos after the storm had passed...he takes GOMEX storms far more seriously than EC storms.

Kevin