Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2002

Satellite images today indicate that the low pressure area about 700
miles east of Bermuda a small but well-defined low-cloud
circulation...with enough deep convection to qualify as a tropical
cyclone. The system is embedded in an upper-level trough and will
be moving over cooler waters in a day or two. Since the environment
does not look to favorable...no strengthening is forecast. The
cyclone is expected to begin merging with a large extratropical low
and associated frontal system by the end of the forecast period.
After meandering over the last 24 hours or so...the cyclone is now
moving slowly northward. It should gradually turn toward the
northeast and accelerate ahead of large deep-layer trough
approaching from the west in a couple of days.

Forecaster pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 33.5n 52.7w 30 kts
12hr VT 18/0600z 35.0n 52.5w 30 kts
24hr VT 18/1800z 37.0n 50.5w 30 kts
36hr VT 19/0600z 39.0n 47.5w 30 kts
48hr VT 19/1800z 42.0n 43.0w 30 kts
72hr VT 20/1800z 47.0n 32.0w 30 kts...extratropical