I'll note five things about the 5:00 PM advisory:
1. System moving west-northwest as expected. This may seem somewhat trivial at this point but will be important to the future track. Seemingly small flucuations now mean big complications in the future.
2. Track shifted further to the right (east). The official forecast now carries it just over Western Cuba. This now puts the southern and central Florida Peninsula at a greater danger of a direct hit.
3. Intensity upped to 70 knots in 72 hours instead of the 60 knots in 72 hours that was previously forecasted. What is even more concerning is that Franklin said that future itensity forecasts may be "rather higher" than the one that is out now.
4. A Gulfstream plane is going to investigate the system tonight, sampling the environment in around the storm. This will be put into the 00Z models...should be a reality check for the models that are forecasting a weak system moving west.
5. The current burst of convection near the center may be the beginning of an intenisifcation phase.

So, that's the story for this advisory. Have a feeling that things are going to get intersting (to say the least) over the next few days. Local media giving this one much more attention than they did last night.

I've also noticed that the storm has taken on more of a comma-like appearance. This is often a sign of a storm beginning to organize and intensify.

I'm becoming more certain of one thing... wherever this storm goes it should make quite a mess.

Kevin