hey anon. you havent got a clue. would take a pretty big amplification along the east coast to get this baby to recurve that sharply, and none of the globals have that. most have the storm trying to phase into the shortwave leading the next amplification, as does the official forecast. as a matter of fact, nogaps is playing outlier, it keeps the storm welll south of the amplification, right off NW cuba, builds the ridge back overhead, and turns it WSW into the bay of campeche. i find that more likely than your guess, which is better suited for late season systems.
anyway that nogaps run is the best support i can find for a further west system. if the trough forecast to draw what will be isidore up doesnt get the storm, then the mexico nogaps drive could be on to something.
but, most likely path right now is up into west central or northwestern florida, somewhere.
HF 2221z17september