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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 8 Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2002 Satellite imagery indicate that the cloud pattern is definitely becoming better organized. Convection has increased near the center with developing banding features and the outflow is rapidly expanding. It appears to be a tropical storm on satellite. However...an Air Force plane just finished investigating the depression and found that the minimum pressure has not changed and it remains about 1006 mb. Max flight level winds are 41 knots confined to a small area to the northeast of the center. Therefore...the system is kept at 30 knots. A new plane will be there at 6 UTC. IR images still show some patches of cirrus undercutting the outflow blowing from the southwest. This was confirmed by data from the dropsondes launched by the NOAA high altitude jet. These winds have been producing shear. However...most of the numerical models have been very persistent in developing a 200 mb ridge over the western Caribbean for the past few days. In fact...latest NCEP global run has a 200 mb anticyclone over the system in 48 hours...perfect for strengthening. With such a good upper-level environment and the fact that the tropical cyclone is heading toward an area of very high upper-oceanic heat content...strengthening is indicated. The system is expected to be a hurricane by the time it approaches western Cuba. The GFDL continues to be aggressive...bringing the presure to 939 mb just north of western Cuba. The depression has been moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 5 or 6 knots during the past few hours. Steering currents are weak but there is enough ridging to keep the cyclone on a general slow northwest track through 72 hours. Thereafter...steering currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone will move very little over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or western Cuba. The official forecast track is in the middle of the ensemble but is biased toward the latest NCEP Global Model run. The latter makes the cyclone nearly stationary over western Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 4 or 5 days. Forecaster Avila forecast positions and Max winds initial 18/0300z 16.9n 77.9w 30 kts 12hr VT 18/1200z 17.5n 78.7w 35 kts 24hr VT 19/0000z 18.9n 80.0w 45 kts 36hr VT 19/1200z 20.0n 81.0w 55 kts 48hr VT 20/0000z 21.5n 82.5w 65 kts 72hr VT 21/0000z 23.0n 84.0w 75 kts |