next recon is in at 06z. thats 2am eastern. so if you want to stay up all night, ya can get the next vortex message.
nhc is mentioning the storm stopping near western cuba. apparently more of the reliable models have shifted that way. that makes the florida hit more questionable, and brings the nogaps run that turned the storm wsw and sent it to tampico, mexico by the 23rd. since the storm has dawdled so much in the caribbean, that possiblity is opening. have to see if the models start trending to that, or if they just hang it off the coast and wait for another shortwave to flick it into the states. timetable being pushed back, storm probably not landfalling this weekend, unless it REALLY gets itself in gear and makes it far enough north so that it catches the connection. somebody still gets a big hurricane, no matter where it goes, odds are.
HF 0337z18september