Here's a reply for ya. Sorry that you got lost in the shuffle. I think most everyone reads all the posts and probably is as confused as you with Isadore. All the bias in the models have shifted west. That's a BIG surprise for me as I expected the 2nd trof to ensure that Isadore would never be in the picture for any forecast in my area. But things change. Go read Bastardi today as he discusses the possibilities. He speculates that the first two trofs fail to pick up the storm. I figured that the 2nd one provided me shelter. Well chances are it's a 3rd trof - cross polar even brrrrrrrrr - that may end up doing the dirty work. Isidore relative to the 3rd trof next week will then make his decision.

nickd - I've noticed the same thing - left, right, left, right left. You'd think this system was under marching orders from a drill sargeant. Who knows? What we do know is there will likely be a Category 3 storm in the Gulf that could affect anyone from Mexico to Brownsville then from New Iberia to Key West. Rarely is speculation this wide with something this close in. Frankly, I still don't have a call but am hedging my only post on this storm to date from last night when I said LA was out of the woods. My 2002 target was Biloxi/Gulfport, so I guess that may be as good of a place as any 144 hours out.

Speaking of previous forecasts, yours truly, CFHC 'Weather Guru' ended up debunking Gary Gray's forecast pattern for the year, Dr. Bill Gray's numerical forecast for the year, and Joe Bastardi's landfall prediction from Appy to Buras for the year. Not bad for a blowhard amateur

. I'll be riding that proverbial train for the rest of the year. For all the b.s. calls we make, it's nice to be right once in a while and is worth a little extra horn tootin'!

Steve