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I think that we should stock up on Rolaids immediately. This is going to be a loooonnnnnggggg week/weekend. I would NOT rule out Florida based on one model run, even if they ALL agree. I'm not a met, but even I know enough by now that you cannot rely on a single model run for track guidance. I think that's why the NHC has shifted the track to the west a bit by still is to the right of the "guidance envelope". The longer it sits out there meandering about, the more difficult it will become to predict a landfall with certainty. And..another thing to remember...even though they (the models) have shifted it west a bit, IF it becomes a major hurricane and even just brushes the western coast of Florida, it could still be a very bad weekend. Look what Floyd did to Jax ...and does anyone remember Georges? Here in Lakeland, we had tornadoes all day long, and he was off the coast. |