i agree with a good call by Hankfrank on seeing the Nogaps was right. Almost all the models including the AVN that i like best next to the Nogaps has it up off cuba by Friday, missing the trough as it lifts out and a weak short wave, then moves it off to the W or even wsw as ridge comes screaming down to the northern gulf, plus with a strong hurricane forcasted to be there a general pick up in speed of around 8 then 12 mph will take shape late sunday into next week. Heading right towards Tampico. Cant say it will make landfall there like I few days back said tampa-Miami as most of us did feel the shortwave trough behind will push it off to the NE. But the system slowed enough to miss the full timing. Remember last Saturday models had it today crossing Cuba and 2 had it ENE of there near the Bahamas. So now to say it will hit Tampico in 6-7 days is like guessing 5/6 numbers in the lotto.
General Conditions show heavy showers and T-storms over Jamaica, reports from Kingston int show S and E parts of the island reporting winds near TS strength in squalls. Latest pressure as of now is 1004mb winds near 45 but could be up to 50 by 11am. Movement has been a wobble to the NW and should at times move NNW and be near G Cayman late tonight and near S end of Cuba Thurs. Should cross the state near 82W later Thurs night into Friday. and meander Saturday moving little as the trough moves out. Should be a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. After that the models take the system W. Only chance florida has is if Isadora moves more NNW during the next 48 hours and crosses Cuba E of 81 to south of Keywest. Then it might have enough eastward placement to keep it in the eastern Gulf or have it cross florida from later Sunday or early next week. Timing is everything here. I am acknowledging the models more though watching this trough more then Isadore. The N central gulf is in the picture too BUT wont be for many days. If she misses the trough and gets caught by the strong ridge later sunday and monday she will move W. Another trough will come down next week and according to next mid weeks flow will come then out of the W and SW pushing the weakening by then Cat 3 120mph Isadore N then NE into the N central Gulf states as a strong Cat 1. So different possibilities here. Florida folks you need to see a N movement or NNW during the next 2 days then if not a W movement that could go right into the Tampico area by Midweek, or the next trough will catch the storm in the sw gulf and turn it NNE. New 11am says still 45mph. Increase those winds by 80 in the gulf on Saturday. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter