Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 18, 2002

we are in a brief gap between reconnaissance aircraft this
morning...but satellite imagery indicates that Isidore continues to
organize...with the development of a curved band south of the center
and a burst of deep convection very close to the center. The next
aircraft will almost surely find a well-defined center for the first
time and increased winds should follow rather quickly. Conditions
appear conducive for significant strengthening once a well-defined
center develops.
There has been no change to the track forecast or thinking. The
initial motion is 315/6. In the short term...guidance is in good
agreement on a continued northwesterly track. Things get
interesting near the end of the forecast period when a mid-to upper
level trough swings into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Timing
will be everything as to whether Isidore has moved far enough into
the Gulf to be picked up by the trough...or left behind. The
current official forecast calls for only very slow motion at the end
of the forecast period. At this point...no portion of the Gulf of
Mexico coastline can be ruled out as a potential ultimate landfall.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/1500z 17.9n 78.7w 40 kts
12hr VT 19/0000z 18.7n 79.5w 45 kts
24hr VT 19/1200z 19.9n 80.8w 55 kts
36hr VT 20/0000z 21.1n 82.1w 65 kts
48hr VT 20/1200z 22.5n 83.5w 75 kts
72hr VT 21/1200z 23.5n 84.5w 80 kts