this morning.. has the look of a system that will deepen rapidly after the core organization improves just a little more. may in fact be a hurricane this evening... wouldnt mind that since i said it would yesterday morning. to me the intensity forecast is a no brainer.. this will be category 3-4 by the weekend. nothing to stop it. problem is track.
all of those neat recurvature solutions from the weekend were based on the storm already being strong yesterday, already being well ahead of its current position. the slow speed and slow, jumpy intensification have sort of ruined the easy recurvature solution. problem now is, the shortwaves leading the really big high coming down from western canada next week may not be enough to tap the ridge out of the way and give izzy a path. they might just skim by and then leave a mid layer ridge intact across the gulf. the rapid SW movement.. i wont entirely discount. does anyone remember iris last year? the reason it blitzed westward across the caribbean was because a massive longwave and surface high built down over the states and blocked its recurvature. same issue here.. if izzy takes it slow and easy, path ahead may be blocked.. and though i think the westward movement is overdone.. that would surely remove florida from the crosshairs.
so basically.. there are a couple more shortwaves for izzy to latch on to.. after that a big longwave trough will make an impermeable barrier across the gulf unless something unforseen on the subtropical jet flow from the east pacific comes along and nudges izzy back or holds it in place until the 3rd amplification.. bastardi's super cold shot late week.. comes to get it. obviously we're talking over a week away.. by then the storm could have already hit florida early, somehow charged its way into the upper gulf ahead of the longwave (hard to buy that one), turned left and sped into mexico.. or just meandered in the southern gulf like opal.
if isidore was just a day ahead of its movement and intensity, this would be a cut and dry florida landfall. but the storm has waited and may miss the chance to phase in the eastern gulf.. and end up never doing so, or just waiting another week.
HF 1454z18september