NHC now expects trough to bypass system and there isn't a whole lot I can say about that at this point. True, Isidore has failed to gain enough latitude to be picked up by the trough, and as a consequence, it will likely miss the connection. NHC still has a HUGE error margin area at 72 hours, from Tampa, Florida to west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The only ways Florida could now take a direct hit are:
1. Isidore establishes a sequence of center reformations combined with rapid intensification brings Isidore unexpectedly close to the Florida SW coast. This scenario is possible, and we will have to watch to see if a northerly trend continues.
2. Isidore itensifies to a category 4 or 5 hurricane and dictates its own path by establishing its own steering currents.
Scenario one is possible but not all that likely in my opinion and scenario two is almost completely whacked and nearly impossible at this time.

So, it looks as if this storm will likely not directly hit anywhere in the Florida Peninsula. If Isidore fails to keep moving northward tonight, a storm that was once considered a great threat to Florida (yesterday) becomes a greatly-reduced threat.

I will stress one thing: Until this storm is well north and west of us, don't take your eyes off of it. Mother nature does occasionally pull surprises. It appears that once again a trough (or a lack of one, as in this case) has spared Florida again.

The northern and western GOMEX coasts now face an increasing threat from what could be a very intense storm.

Kevin