You must be referring to Irene.......while Miami was getting pounded, they kept pointing towards Naples/Sarasota. That's where Jim Cantore was, too--in Miami.

I heard on WFLA-Tampa 970 this afternoon at 4pm Jack Beven talking about this storm....he said the models are all split right down the middle....they either recurve it to the west because it misses the front/trough or they take it N and then NE into Florida somewhere. So, according to HIM it's 50/50.
He said a definite track would be difficult to forecast before Friday. I guess that's the "magic day" as to whether it's a hit or a miss.

I also noticed that they did not, as of 5pm, lower the strike probabilities for Key West. They are still at 22%, Tampa went down 1%.

Time will tell the tale.....