First off, if you pose a question to me and I don't respond right away, please excuse that...I'll try to get to anyone who asks me a question, but it's starting to get a little busy around here!

Now, some thoughts....

1) The weaker presentation on the IR sats this evening is almost certainly due to the center reformation. Looking at the data from recon and surrounding obs, the wind field is becoming less broad, and tighter around the center...a promising sign of organization. Likewise, it looks like the pressure drops are beginning, with a 998 from the last fix...winds should begin responding accordingly in the next 8-12 hours. I'll give you even money on a 11pm upgrade to hurricane, almost sure bet on a 5am upgrade if not. This is one of those cases where IR is not the best tool to use, as it is pretty deceiving.

2) Over the short term the models are in amazing agreement, but unfortunately, they have a problem...they are calling for NW motion, and we are seeing more NNW to almost N motion at this time...while normally not a big deal, this has HUGE implications on the eventual forecast track, as the more N and E the entry to the gulf, the more likely a Northern Gulf strike, and the more possible a recurve to the NE towards the peninsula becomes. I'm hearing the all clear being called for the peninsula...I'm not one of those yet. While the likelyhood of a peninsula strike isn't likely, it certainly is possible. Don't let down your guard just yet. Big storms have a strange habit of modifying the near storm environment, creating their own steering currents. From there, there are really three thoughts...1) a SW turn completely missing the trof...(AVN today, NOGAPS yesterday)...I'm flatly thinking this is not a correct solution, and my personal forecast discounts this almost completely. 2) Slippping beneath the trof and slowly meandering NW towards TX, with a possible late recurvature to the NE...maybe...about 45% on this one in my mind. 3) Isadore says to heck with the trof and blows north to the northern Gulf Coast (GFDL and CMC)...55% prob in my mind...not because of the GFDL, but because of the CMC, one of the most underrated model suites out there...has performed quite respectably so far, and has been consistant with this type motion for the last few runs.

My (very early) call? Between New Orleans and Destin by Monday night. Your mileage, however and as always, may vary.

OK...grill me to death now!