storm has deepened but still hasnt stopped stair-stepping nnw. still no rapid intensification.. convection was concentrated earlier, but cdo weakened and is currently reforming. once pressures get below about 994mb the storm should have a strong enough center to keep the convection focused and the intensification steady to rapid. as the nhc does.. expect the stair stepping to stop and a nw track to take hold. late in the forecast period the hurricane should be at least what the nhc predicts, but more likely stronger. after a certain point the outflow from the hurricane will begin to affect the environment around it so strongly that models probably dont have a fix on their strength.. the stall to west option is probably overdone.
i will of course keep updating this as i go along.. not a true ballsy forecast.. but my thoughts are that the storm will be very close to dry tortugas on saturday evening, probably about 75-100 miles west or northwest of the forecast position. expected intensity 125mph/950mb... deepening, and moving slowly nw.
my idea is that there is an unknown lurker variable that models havent decoded yet... i think that there will probably be some kind of pulse of energy from the eastern pacific, or maybe a little disturbance carried under the big amplification that slides by.. and keeps isidore moving more north than west. there may be stalls and jogs westward, but nothing, say, like the recent avn and nogaps runs that have the storm going to the bay of campeche. at some point i do expect isidore to be a category four, with winds 140-150mph.
not willing to go any further than that.
well, noticed something. nothing seems to work better at deflecting hurricanes than hype. the more we get on and talk about the terrible scenarios that could possibly unfold, the more likely they are to hit some third world country or weaken to a mediocre system prior to landfall. so actually i encourage as many calls as possible to hometowns, which seems to be the best protection against them getting hit. you people in mobile and houston who want to think every storm is coming at them know who you are.. call it to ya, thats the best protection money cant buy.
i'd call this one to landfall at st. marks as a 160kt cane but am kinda hoping to miss some school next week and want a drunk senseless hurricane party, so i hereby deem the coastline from cedar key to port st. joe as having a 0% chance of landfall. nope, nothing will EVER go there..
HF tallahassee, fl 2316z18september