I watched as residents were evacuated from the Northern Gulf coastlines as Elena made a beeline north. I watched Elena stall, then a few hours later decide to head directly East. This caused major panic and hurried evacuations on the Western Florida coast. Elena stalled more than 50 miles off the coast. I was some 50 miles inland, and experienced 24 hours of the worst weather I have ever seen. And I have lived in FL all my life, and lived through hurricanes that went directly over my house.
Both times, everyone was certain of the track. Elena finally decided to head back north, and many people were re-evacuated who had recently returned home.
Models and forecasting have improved significantly since then, but not enough. If we had Elena this weekend, no one would be able to tell with any certaintly when, or if, she would turn east. Nor with any certainty when, or if, she would head back north. Had she continued moving a couple more hours at any point, the story would be completely different. We know very little, and pretend to know a lot. We now the weather EXACTLY at one particular spot in every 50 mile area, give or take.
We having varying degrees of knowledge here. But none of us, (no offense Jason) know 1 / 1000th of the knowledge needed to make an accurate forecast of where Izzy will eventually go. We are here to discuss various ideas, and see which ones pan out. This is how we learn as individuals, and as a society. Shawn, you may be right. I'd say HankFrank has as good a chance as you do of being right. Chill. It's ok to disagree. Just don't make it personal. No one else here has.