shawn.. think you might have missed my point. yeah ok you were saying western gulf problem and i was inwardly sort of shaking my head, poking fun at you.. but the whole rant about hyping storms was the real focus of what i wrote. look here, its nothing to get your panties in a wad over:
sort of as a joke i said that predicting a storm would affect ya is probably the surest way to make sure it doesnt. if youve been on this site during the last few years, then you know what i mean. then i said thats why i dont (that is, i DID NOT, as some of you didnt catch that) predict a cat five to cross the coast down in wakulla county... 'cause id like to get some holidays next week (and drink about three cases of beer)... and if i say nothing is coming, it probably will. haha, funny funny, right. really it's whistling in the dark.
anyhow, i've been thinking/saying northwest florida because i've been betting that the synoptic picture and climatology would outweigh the 'lets take the storm into the SE gulf and stall it all week' sort of model braindeath move. florida florida everybody says, sensible or not.. but for me it surely isnt wishcasting. im not even from here.
have to admit i can picture it hitting further west on the gulf coast.. but not in houston, not in texas. just look at the global models and notice how a hurricane couldnt get close.. unless it made some weeklong journey into the BOC and then recurved out at the end of the month. sorry man, but im gonna go with eastern gulf.. just so much easier to buy.
actually, despite my happy go lucky banter.. i'm worried. this thing has lots of potential that i can only hope is never realized.
HF 0134z19september