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Bob showed a nice color infrared which appears to show Isidore about to wrap up with some serious convection blowing up just north and east of the center. He showed the 5pm Forecast track (NHC) which bee lines to Buras (Mouth of the Mississippi). Of course he said that's good because there's always a deviation from these types of tracks - it's either going east or west of the track. He's leaning more to west of the track and possibly a stall near the Yucatan - but apparently west of 90 (N.O.'s parallel). His thinking is that ultimately it kicks back off to the NE out front of a SW windflow. The whole deal is the front which is expected to hang up south of Shreveport, then pulse again to around Baton Rouge. What happens next is anyone's guess as the front could move through, stall, or wash out. Of course he reminded all viewers that the 4-7 coordinates were +.4 N, + .4 W and that the new ones would be out in 15 minutes. 11 is major advisory time, so the model runs should follow. It will give us insominacs who just can't wait to go Bear hunting Sunday afternoon something to look at. Steve |