Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 19 2002 03:55 AM
Re: Latest models

Looks like we are out of the woods here in north central FL of any effects from "izzy"......

Shew I can breath.... I was getting a little nervous there for a while. I live on a nursery and am surrounded by sable palm trees in 50 and 100 gallon pots, which im sure would have made great progectiles (sp?)
Thanks all for all the great posts
Regards
BD


Taken from the NWS Jacksonville office

WHY YOU ASK...NO EXTENDED MODEL IS BRING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANYWHERE CLOSE TO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE CLOSEST MODEL
FROM LAST NIGHT WAS THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HAD AN 84 HOUR
POSITION 8 AM SATURDAY AT 28N 85W OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA. THE 12 UTC RUN...THIS MORNING'S...HAD THE CENTER
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT 26.4N 87W CONTINUING THE TREND OF MOVING
THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING THE GFS (AVN/MRF) MODEL ARE BUILDING A DEEP LEVEL RIDGE
(700-300 MB) OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
THE CENTER IS ACTUALLY OVER JACKSONVILLE ON SATURDAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WHICH MAY
CAUSE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE...I SUSPECT WE ARE OVERPLAYING
THE CONVECTION IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH A SOUTHEAST
FETCH OFF THE OCEAN MAY BE GOOD FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE BEACHES...IF ISIDORE BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE AND
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF (EARLY NEXT WEEK) WE WILL BE IN THE
SUBSIDENT REGION AROUND THE SYSTEM. THAT COUPLED WITH LOCAL
SUBSIDENCE FROM OUR PROTECTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME BEAUTIFUL BLUE SKIES AND PLEASANT WEATHER.

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

SANDRIK





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