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Looks like we are out of the woods here in north central FL of any effects from "izzy"...... Shew I can breath.... I was getting a little nervous there for a while. I live on a nursery and am surrounded by sable palm trees in 50 and 100 gallon pots, which im sure would have made great progectiles (sp?) Thanks all for all the great posts Regards BD Taken from the NWS Jacksonville office WHY YOU ASK...NO EXTENDED MODEL IS BRING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ANYWHERE CLOSE TO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE CLOSEST MODEL FROM LAST NIGHT WAS THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HAD AN 84 HOUR POSITION 8 AM SATURDAY AT 28N 85W OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA. THE 12 UTC RUN...THIS MORNING'S...HAD THE CENTER FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT 26.4N 87W CONTINUING THE TREND OF MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS (AVN/MRF) MODEL ARE BUILDING A DEEP LEVEL RIDGE (700-300 MB) OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE CENTER IS ACTUALLY OVER JACKSONVILLE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WHICH MAY CAUSE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE...I SUSPECT WE ARE OVERPLAYING THE CONVECTION IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH A SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF THE OCEAN MAY BE GOOD FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...IF ISIDORE BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE AND IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF (EARLY NEXT WEEK) WE WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENT REGION AROUND THE SYSTEM. THAT COUPLED WITH LOCAL SUBSIDENCE FROM OUR PROTECTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME BEAUTIFUL BLUE SKIES AND PLEASANT WEATHER. .JAX... .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. SANDRIK |