FRom TBW (Tampa Bay) early morning disussion:

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...ALL EYES TO THE SOUTH AS EVENTUAL TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF ISIDORE IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND.
TPC TAKES SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF IN 48 HOURS...AND FROM
THERE LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR IMMEDIATE
ANSWERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY...WITH AVN/NOGAPS TURNING
SYSTEM WEST AND RUNNING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE 00Z CANADIAN A TERRIBLE SCENARIO OF THE STORM
STALLING AROUND 25N 85W...THEN BEING PULLED NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE NATURE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFDL QUITE SIMILAR TO
CANADIAN...WHICH IS AN INCREASING CAUSE OF CONCERN. ETA/NGM ARE
THROWN OUT DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...NOT
TO MENTION ETA HAS STRANGE LOOKING SECONDARY SYSTEM AT 60 HOURS
STRONGER THAN ISIDORE BACK IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.

FOR NOW...WILL MAKE A FORECAST LEANING TOWARD A CLOSER APPROACH TO
BE ON THE SAFE SIDE AS TROF DIGGING INTO THE WEST LOOKS VERY STRONG
ON WATER VAPOR...AND UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY
WESTWARD AHEAD OF ISIDORE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE
NORTHWEST YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WILL REQUIRE BEEFING UP
THE WORDING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO INCLUDE BREEZY AND LIKELY
INSTEAD OF CHANCE POPS. WILL KEEP LATE SUMMER CLIMO GOING FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION.

MARINE: SIMILAR TO ZONES...WILL BEEF UP WINDS AND SEAS WORDING FOR
THE WEEKEND LEANING TO THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF OPTIONS. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ANYONE THINKING ABOUT VENTURING OUT INTO THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD CONSTANTLY UPDATE THEMSELVES ON THE MARINE FORECASTS
AS THEY COULD CHANGE DRASTICALLY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ISIDORE.

The key message here: model divergence is GREATER than it has been. Tampa is usually pretty conservative, I give their comments and MLB considerable weight.

TWT.

IHS,

Bill