I'm still holding to my forecast for a Gulf storm east of 85 W. It appears that the Plains trough will cause a gradual north to northeast curvature in 72 hours. Isidore should move far enough north to be impacted by the S to SW steering flow that will develop over the Gulf. The question is how sharp the turn will be, or if it will continue a northward motion till landfall as per the GFDL. The intensity forecast is simple: steady strengthening to at least Cat 2 strength, with a minor disruption as the center passes over western Cuba. Major hurricane status is certainly possible. We will have to wait and see how much shearing and dry air impinge upon Isidore from the west as it makes its turn.

That's just my opinion. I think there is still too much uncertainty and everyone in the Gulf should be on the lookout. A westward track predicted by some of the models is not impossible, but I find it hard to believe. The central Gulf scenario is more believable, but my best prediction at present is the east Gulf with the Plains trough pulling the storm north or northeast.

God Bless,
Ronn