Took a morning off from Isidore today...don't want to get burned out on it too quickly, and I needed to see everything with fresh eyes...a few thoughts on general trends and some things posed on the board.

1) In reference to the PSU site, they are a little slow about updating the global models and the GFDL, but it ain't their fault. The Global (non US) models aren't as readily available to US users, and take a while (for some weird reason) to get delivered to US interests. The GFDL, because your federal government has decided that we (non-NWS folks) aren't responsible enough to handle it, time delays the release of the GFDL data to the non NWS community for 6-12 hrs. (Plus, did you know that there are several VERSIONS of the GFDL? GFDN, GUNS, GFDL, GFDUK? Do we get to see those? NOPE!)

2) Izzy is going a little more W than I was thinking last night....does this change the forecast thinking? Not yet, although where it crosses Cuba is pretty important in the evolution of all of this. Late Vis's seem to be a little more Northerly, but I haven't done enough analysis to be sure.

3) Strengthening nicely...in fact, this may be one of those VERY rare storms where we do better on intensity than track...I just see nothing ahead, besides Cuba, to keep it from getting to major status.

4) Long term...boy, I thought this might clear up a bit, but if anything , it's more muddled. The problem is that the global models, as good as they are, aren't gonna reflect what is really going on....because they can't cope with pressures and gradients that low, because the resolution isn't good enough...so you have to look at the smaller scale models (in general...I'm not suggesting to throw out the AVN or anything, but it needs to be weighted)...the GFDL should have considerable weight, because in this case it will handle the processes internally pretty well, since any motion in the mid-term will be storm-initiated, rather than environment initiated. (Does that make sense?)

So, what is there anything new? Not really...we are atill in a wait and see mode. There is nothing that has developed this morning that lends any clarity or weight from one solution to another...just keep watching, and stay alert.